COULD CRUDE OIL SPIKE TO $120?
Crude Oil prices have rallied nearly 8% since early this week, mainly due to concerns over potential supply disruptions after Russia invaded Ukraine. Western allies imposed more sanctions on Russia and blocked some Russian banks from the SWIFT- global payments system, which could complicate and cause severe disruption to its oil exports.
Russia’s crude oil grades account for roughly 10% of the global oil supply, which has taken a hit due to western sanctions targeting Russian financial systems, which is likely to create a supply shock. In addition, OPEC+ cuts its estimate for an oil market surplus this year by nearly 200,000 barrels per day to 1.1 million bpd.
Goldman Sachs raised its one-month forecast to $115 a barrel, up from $95 representing a 21% increase. The potential upside risk is significant due to western sanctions, potential further escalation of the war, and supply disruptions to Russian Oil markets. According to Goldman Sachs “demand destruction is the only thing that can stop oil shooting higher to $115”.
Over the past few weeks, the 20-day moving average has been serving as a key support, as crude oil aims higher to retest the $100 psychological target. The fragile situation in Ukraine and the financial and energy sanctions against Russia may push and sustain oil above $100 a barrel in the near term. Any signs of further escalations should drive crude oil prices higher. During the past month, RSI levels remain above 60% signaling a strong uptrend. Traders must keep an eye for any surge in output from OPEC+, along with the lifting of U.S. sanctions on Iran, will help boost oil supplies.
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