IS BITCOIN THE $1 MILLION OPPORTUNITY?
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Recently, Bitcoin got a million-dollar price target by 2030, according to Cathie Woods, CEO of ARK Investment Management firm. From the numerous stories of “Bitcoin Millionaires” to the increasing number of companies that are jumping into the crypto world, it’s quite difficult to ignore the news or the feeling of not owning cryptos and the fear it presents of missing out. The price of Bitcoin has experienced dramatic swings and intense volatility from $3,000 in 2017 to an all-time high of approximately $69,000 in late 2021. However, can the Crypto King reach the US$1 million price target? Let’s first take a closer look at what makes Bitcoin unique and why is it worth investing in.
Bitcoin is a digital, virtual, or a type of “crypto” currency because it uses cryptography to keep it secure through the use of blockchain technology. The purpose of Bitcoin is to allow online payments to be made directly from one party to another through a worldwide payment system without the need for a central third-party intermediary like a bank. Similarly, its value stems from a combination of factors such as scarcity and the perception that it is a store of value.
To better understand what Bitcoin is, it’s important to look at its timeline more specifically how it was created. It was first created based on a paper written in 2008 by a “founder” who goes by the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto who is still a mystery, but no person or agency currently regulates it to ensure that it maintains value, liquidity, and works as a means o payment. It is governed by the consensus of a private digital community, according to certain guidelines based on the community, cryptology, and a network of computers.
Like many new technologies or products, Bitcoin attracted worldwide interest through its innovation and its perceived absence of governmental control. Traders and investors saw it as an alternative to traditional investments such as stocks, bonds, cash, and its attention garnered substantial momentum, through media attention which drove mainstream awareness and essentially, increased public acceptance to trade it.
We have to understand that one of the major drivers behind Bitcoins prices is that it’s highly sensitive to the market's perception of future adoption. So it is better to think of today’s prices reflecting some probability that Bitcoin could achieve greater adoption in the future. Therefore, small changes in those probabilities can result in high price volatility today.
This is known as halving when the rate of new Bitcoin creation is halved when every 210,000 blocks are mined, and that period is roughly every 4 years until all 21 million bitcoins are mined approximately in the year 2140. It is significant because it represents the reduction in Bitcoin’s circulating supply and has been correlated with massive surges in price within 12-18 after the halving takes place.
We have to keep in mind there was a sharp correction after each all-time high, however, the new low was always significantly higher than before (after each phase), reassuring investors & traders how resilient it is. Bitcoin’s historical growth rates during the past three halving phases have been nothing but impressive, therefore a 1 million dollar price target may not seem too farfetched, it will nearly have to 15-20x representing a 2,000% to 2,500% increase by 2030.
One thing is clear though, and that is the critical ingredient to Bitcoin’s success & upside potential is widespread social adoption—we see that when PayPal (a fintech company with over $392 million active users) began to accept BTC, & also when Square adds 50mn to its balance sheet, and of course, Tesla, the sixth-largest company in the S&P 500, adds 1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin onto its balance sheet. Goldman Sachs Co-Head of Global FX, Rates and EM Strategy stated: “ that bitcoins potential for widespread social adoption given its strong brand properties, such as its security, privacy, transferability and the fact that’s it digital makes it a plausible store of value for future generations”.
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